The 1948 war in Palestine, much like most wars, created refugees. There were both Jewish and Arab refugees but this page focuses only on the Palestinian Arabs. The Jewish refugees, which were all absorbed back into society, are no longer an issue today and haven’t been for quite some time. The Palestinian Arab refugees, however, have grown exponentially and are at the very heart of the Arab-Israeli conflict today.
It should be clarified that when people speak of how many refugees, there are two sets of numbers referred to. First, there is the count of people who at the time of the war in 1948 were displaced because of the war. Second, there are all the descendants of these original refugees, along with refugees from the 1967 Six Day War and all of their descendants. This page addresses the first group. Information on the number of refugees that still exist today can be found here: UNRWA and Palestinian Arab refugee estimates.
The short answer to the question of how many Palestinian Arab refugees were created in the 1948 Palestine war is well under 600,000.
In August of 1948 Count Folke Bernadotte, the U.N. Mediator in Palestine, submitted a report in which the total number of refugees numbered 330,0001. The U.N. had by October, 1948 produced two more estimates for how many Arab refugees fled territory Israel controlled, “the higher of which estimated the number would ‘shortly increase to 500,000’”2. Two years later in October, 1950 the U.N. settled on an increased estimate of 711,0003. The problem, however, is that number is riddled with inaccuracy. One of the first problems I’ve come across with these refugee estimates is that various definitions of who is being counted as a refugee are used throughout UN reports on the matter.
A refugee has been defined as:
Each of these definitions will yield different numbers. But it's not just a matter of varying definitions because even if the UN had stuck to just one, their failure to adhere to any of them consistently worked to bloat their estimate. The very next sentence in the report that offers the first definition above poses several example scenarios that make identifying refugees difficult such as when “a family may have lost part or all of its land from which its living was secured, but it may still have a house to live in. Others may have lived on one side of the boundary but worked in what is now Israel most of the year. Others, such as Bedouins, normally moved from one area of the country to another, and some escaped with part or all of their goods but cannot return to the area where they formerly resided the greater part of the time.”9
In other words, the UN gave a definition and then proceeded to count people who did not conform to it. This is probably why the UN admitted that one of the first tasks undertaken by the UN Relief and Work Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East which was to “determine who should not receive relief”10 concluded “it is still not possible to give an absolute figure of the true number of refugees as understood by the working definition”11. This was after a year and an expenditure of almost $300,000.
"Another common problem ... is indicated by a question asked a hundred times daily: 'What is a "refugee"?'. Since no official definition has ever been given, the agencies interpret the word as best they can in the field. Thus arises a series of problems which few, if any, international organizations might answer satisfactorily. ... it is but natural that false registrations and duplications should be present in large numbers on the relief rolls."7
There was also the admission that “An accurate statement of the number of genuine refugees resulting from the war in Palestine is unlikely to be provided now or in the future. In fact, it is almost impossible to define closely the word ‘refugee,’ as applied to the work of the Agency, without leaving certain groups of deserving people outside those accepted, or conversely, including groups who probably should not be in receipt of relief.”12 Despite the UN’s recognition of the need to establish “the most exact figures possible”, the estimates were inflated due to problems such as “duplication of ration cards, addition of persons who have been displaced from area other than Israel-held areas and of persons who, although not displaced, are destitute.”13
The UN clarifies that the 711,000 refugees it estimates are only those that fled from Israeli controlled territory, though the mechanism for sifting out the “duplicates” and “destitute” within this territory was not explained. “Destitute” would be a fitting description for many Arabs of Palestine in 1948 which swings open the gate for all sorts of needy, but not genuine refugees to be counted. In fact, the UN identifies “over 800,000”14 refugees described as “destitute” while at the same time declaring these destitute refugees to be “physically better off than the poorest levels of the population of the host countries”15 to which they fled.
This of course demonstrates the large number of non-refugee “destitute” Arabs and raises the question of how many made it into the refugee counts. Anticipating challenges to their estimate, the UN makes reference to a “percentage of error”16 but does not actually specify what the percentage is. 3% or 25% or 300%, etc. "Estimates vary as to the percentage of error present on different rolls but in some it is possibly as much as 50 per cent and represents a serious operational difficulty."37 50% is the worst case scenario so if we accept a milder estimate of, say 25%, that still leaves us at 533,000 legitimate Palestinian Arab refugees.
"Most serious students of the history of Palestine would accept that the number of Arab refugees from Israel during and after 1948 claimed by Arab and UN sources—some 600,000 to 750,000—was exaggerated. It is very easy to refute that estimate and many have already done it." - Yehoshua Porath17
Reinforcing the validity for doubting the accuracy of the 711,000 estimate are a barrage of statements from other UN reports:
Ten years later, “After their 1960 investigation, Senators Gale McGee and Albert Gore reported the surfeit of Ration cards [which] have become chattel for sale, for rent or bargain by any Jordanian, whether refugee or not, needy or wealthy.”26 The “comprehensive survey” doesn’t appear to have been very effective.
"Over the years, UNRWA has published data on population size in the Palestinian refugee camps and on the natural increase rates of these populations. It has long been recognized, however, that UNRWA data cannot be regarded as statistically reliable, which is acknowledged by the agency's officials themselves. From the early 1950s onward the United Nations General Assembly repeatedly instructed them to supply reliable data. This was not done. The names of deceased refugees from 1950 onward were only partly deleted from the lists of those eligible for allocations of food provisions and other forms of support ... that the agency provided. Furthermore, thorough and ongoing updating of death records, a prerequisite of reliable data, was not instituted."27
A Better Estimate
In 1959 Dr. Walter Pinner published a study called “How Many Arab Refugees?” which analyzed the U.N.’s methodologies in their estimates. Due to the logical simplicity of Dr. Pinner’s estimate, it avoided the problems that plagued the U.N.’s reports by calculating the Arab refugees based on how many Arabs were in what became Israeli-controlled territory before the war, and then subtracted the number of Arabs that remained afterwards. The difference, of course, would be the number of refugees who fled.
Based on a demographic study conducted at the end of 194428, there were approximately 640,000 Arabs living on what would become Israeli-controlled territory. Adding to this sum the estimated natural rate of increase of 8.74% through April 1948 (the month prior to the Arab invasion), we arrive at a figure of 696,000 total Arabs living on what would become Israeli-controlled territory.
*Note* - this is a different figure than the total number of Arabs living in all of Palestine (Israel, West Bank, and Gaza which was about 1.2 million).
After the war was over, 157,000 Arabs stayed in or returned to Israel. 696,000 – 157,000 = 539,000. In fact, the number of Arabs that remained within Israeli-held territory is put as high as 170,000 by Schiff’s study on the UNRWA29, which lowers the total refugee count to 526,000. The bottom line is the 1948 Palestine War created well under 600,000 Arab refugees, not the inflated 711,000 the UN came up with, or the 800,000 MidEastJournal comes up with30, or the 900,000+ Human Rights House comes up with31.
Dr. Walter Pinner followed his initial analysis of the UNRWA’s refugee counts with a second study 7 years later in 196732. One would think that with almost 20 years to eliminate fraudulent refugee claims, there would not be much left to criticize. On the contrary, the ratio of fraudulent to valid claims skyrocketed.
By 1966, UNRWA was recording 1,317,749 Palestinian Arab refugees. From this gigantic number Dr. Pinner identifies invalid refugee claims using UNRWA’s own reports as follows:
After subtracting the invalid claims, we wind up with 115,000 “Old and Sick” and 252,000 “other Unsettled Genuine Refugees” totaling 367,000 legitimate refugees as of 1966. UNRWA’s estimate was too high by over 950,000. 950,000! This over-estimate reaches cartoon-like distortions thanks to how the UNRWA counts Palestinian Arab refugees. Regardless, how can the UNRWA be trusted to provide any meaningful or trustworthy statistics then, now, or in the future?
Dr. Pinner sent his findings to the UN Secretary General (at the time Dag Hammarskjold) and requested either a refutation of his numbers or a correction in their reports. He received a response from the director of the UNRWA confirming the receipt of his findings, but neither the refutation nor correction was provided.
Another demographic study on populations within Israel concurs with Dr. Pinner's figure, estimating "over 500,000 Arab residents who had lived in areas included in the new State fled during the war."34 Likewise, Joseph Schechtman's study on population transfers in Asia refers to "some 500,000 to 600,000"35 Palestinian Arab refugees.
"The State Abstract of Palestine, 1944-1945, sets the number of Arabs living in the Jewish areas as 571,000. This figure had certainly grown by 1948 due largely to continued Arab immigration, but even the highest estimate placed it at no more than 690,000 in 1948. And since at least 140,000 Arabs remained in Israel after the war, the maximum number of Arab refugees should have been 550,000."38
It is worth noting that as the years go by, the UNRWA continues to inflate even their initial estimate of the 711,000 original 1948 Palestinian Arab refugees. The number given as of 2006 now ranges from 750,000 to 900,00036, probably following the logic that if you’re going to tell a lie, make it count.
Footnotes:
1 United Nations. Mediator's Plan for Aid to Palestine Refugees. New York, 16 August 1948
2 Peters, Joan. From Time Immemorial: The Origins of the Arab-Jewish Conflict Over Palestine. New York: Harper & Row, 1984. 17.
3 United Nations. General Progress Report and Supplementary Report of the United Nations Conciliation for Palestine. New York: United Nations, 1950.
4 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Refugees; Interim Report of the Director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. 1951.
5 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Refugees; Interim Report of the Director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. 1951.
6 UNRWA. Who is a Palestine Refugee?
7 Richardson, B. "The United Nations Relief for Palestine Refugees" International Organization Vol 4, No 1. (Feb, 1950): 5.
9 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Refugees; Interim Report of the Director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. 1951.
10 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Palestine Refugees: Special Report of the Director and Advisory Commission of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Paris: United Nations, 1951.
11 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Palestine Refugees: Special Report of the Director and Advisory Commission of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Paris: United Nations, 1951.
12 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Refugees; Interim Report of the Director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. 1951.
13 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Refugees; Interim Report of the Director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. 1951.
14 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Palestine Refugees: Special Report of the Director and Advisory Commission of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Paris: United Nations, 1951.
15 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Palestine Refugees: Special Report of the Director and Advisory Commission of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Paris: United Nations, 1951.
16 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Palestine Refugees: Special Report of the Director and Advisory Commission of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Paris: United Nations, 1951.
17 Porath, Yehoshua. Mrs. Peters's Palestine (Site accessed Apr. 13 2007)
18 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Palestine Refugees: Special Report of the Director and Advisory Commission of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Paris: United Nations, 1951.
19 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Palestine Refugees: Special Report of the Director and Advisory Commission of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Paris: United Nations, 1951.
20 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Palestine Refugees: Special Report of the Director and Advisory Commission of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Paris: United Nations, 1951.
21 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Palestine Refugees: Special Report of the Director and Advisory Commission of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Paris: United Nations, 1951.
22 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Refugees; Interim Report of the Director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. 1951.
23 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Refugees; Interim Report of the Director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. 1951.
24 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Refugees; Interim Report of the Director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. 1951.
25 United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Assistance to Refugees; Interim Report of the Director of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. 1951.
26 Peters, Joan. From Time Immemorial: The Origins of the Arab-Jewish Conflict Over Palestine. New York: Harper & Row, 1984. 18.
27 Gilbar, Gad G. Population Dilemmas in the Middle East: Essays in Political Demography and Economy. London: F. Cass, 1997. 21.
28 USA Institute for Mediterranean Affairs, The Palestine Refugee Problem (New York 1958)
29 Schiff, Benjamin N. Refugees Unto the Third Generation: UN Aid to Palestinians. Contemporary issues in the Middle East. Syracuse: Syracuse University Press, 1995. 14. [Citing YRDP, United Nations Palestine Relief Agencies: A Survey. Beirut, May 27, 1950, Part III].
30 Abushaqra, Baha. The Palestinian Refugee Problem and the Right of Return (Site accessed Feb 14, 2007)
31 The Palestinian Refugees (1948-2004) (Site accessed May 27, 2007)
32 Pinner, Walter. The Legend of the Arab Refugees: A Critical Study of UNRWA's Reports and Statistics. Tel Aviv: Economic and Social Research Institute, 1967.
33 Pinner, Walter. The Legend of the Arab Refugees: A Critical Study of UNRWA's Reports and Statistics. Tel Aviv: Economic and Social Research Institute, 1967. 54-56.
34 Friedlander, Dov, and Calvin Goldscheider. The Population of Israel. New York: Columbia University Press, 1979. 24
35 Schechtman, Joseph B. Population Transfers in Asia. New York: Hallsby Press, 1949. 131
36 Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The State of the World's Refugees 2006: Human Displacement in the New Millennium. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006. 112
37 Richardson, B. "The United Nations Relief for Palestine Refugees" International Organization Vol 4, No 1. (Feb, 1950): 5.
38 Berkley, George E. Jews. Boston: Branden Pub. Co, 1997. 276